Cryptocurrency Market Outlook; Lackluster Markets Move Higher

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Cryptocurrency Market Outlook; Lackluster Markets Move Higher

Bitcoin Is Moving Higher, Don’t Count On New Highs Yet

The Bitcoin/cryptocurrency market has cooled off, but that is a good thing. The market is up strongly YTD and a little consolidation is a healthy market mechanic, it sets the market up to continue moving higher later this year. Over the last few days the world’s leading cryptocurrency by market cap has been edging higher and taking most of the crypto market with it. The candles formed look pretty bullish and are supported by the indicators so higher prices are likely. The problem is that, without a catalyst, the move is likely to fizzle out before new highs can be set. Even if a new high is set, it will likely trigger another round of profit-taking/market rotation that will keep BTC/USD moving sideways for the next few weeks at least.

Longer-term, I still expect to see BTC continue its rally and possibly as soon as this fall. The signs are growing, Bitcoin is recapturing market share at a steady clip and the hash-rate keeps setting new highs. Coinmarketcap shows Bitcoin dominance approaching 72% and 2+ year high. Blockchain.com shows Bitcoin’s hash-rate has resumed its parabolic move higher as more and more miners get into the act. The bottom line is that Bitcoin is still the number #1 cryptocurrency and the market is flooding into it. It may take a little while longer to work though technical resistance at $13,000 but, once done, the move to new highs will be sharp and severe.

The #1 driver of BTC price over the next 8.5 months is going to be the halvening. As the number of miners and holders increases demand will increase and the halvening is going to cut new-supply in half. Just Litecoin did this year, BTC/USD should see a market-leading rally that adds several hundreds of percentage points to its value. LTC moved up nearly 500% from the low of 2020 to the high pre-halvening level. LTC has since pulled back where it is presenting another buying opportunity. Just like this year, next year when the BTC halvening rally hits full-stride it will help lift the entire crypto market, and Litecoin along with it.

Cryptocurrency Market Update: Altcoins Continue to Slide

FOMO Moments

Market decline has slowed but EOS, VeChain, Cardano, and Ethereum Classic are still suffering.

The rout has not continued over the past 24 hours and crypto land seems to have found a level where markets have settled. This is just above $270 billion in terms of total market capitalization, however the outlook is still bearish.

Bitcoin has made marginal moves higher but is still around the same level it was trading at this time yesterday. BTC resides at $7,650 at the time of writing and technical signals indicate that it could move higher to test the $7,850 resistance level. Ethereum has not fared so well and has continued to fall, dropping 1.4% to $420.

Most of the altcoins are also still falling according to Coinmarketcap stats this morning. In the top ten EOS and Cardano are still falling fastest with over 4% declines on the day. XRP has fallen back from yesterday’s pump to trade $0.44, 2.5% lower today.

In the top twenty VeChain is getting bashed up once again with a 10% slide to $1.94. From its weekly high last Thursday or $2.67 VEN has lost 27%, and over the past month it is down a similar amount. Ethereum Classic is down 4.5% with Tron, Dash and Tezos all falling over 3.5%. The only altcoin in the green in the top twenty at the moment is Monero, up 3.7% to $127. XMR however is down 11% on the week.

Further down the list Bitcoin Gold and Decred are both posting small gains of 4-6%. The top performing altcoin of the moment in the top 100 is KickCoin with a 28% pump which is likely to dump again soon. The recent hack and promise of a full refund by the team will have reassured investor confidence in the project.

A few other obscure altcoins including Emercoin, Metaverse ETP, Bitcoin Private, and ChainLink are also up around 9%. Out of all the altcoins listed on CMC Civic is the top at the moment with 144% surge in 24 hours. In addition to VeChain, WaltonChain, Pundi X, and Nano are all getting beat up today with 7-8% declines.

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There are no cryptocurrencies outstanding at the moment in the top 25. Total crypto market capitalization has not really changed over the past 24 hours and sits at just over $272 billion. Trade volume however has fallen from $15 billion to a little over $12 billion. Since last Thursday crypto markets have shed 10%, which equivalent to around $30 billion.

FOMO Moments is a section that takes a daily look at the top 25 altcoins during the current trading session and analyses the best performing ones, looking for trends and possible fundamentals.

Cryptocurrency Market Outlook; Lackluster Markets Move Higher

Hello, hello and welcome to this week’s Market Outlook.

There hasn’t been a great deal of movement in the markets this past week, which was somewhat expected given the volatility of the prior weeks. That said, a few altcoins are doing their own thing and a few others are setting up very attractive ranges for longer-term positions; one of these being Vertcoin, which I shall cover in today’s post.

Beyond this, my usual structure will be maintained, featuring analysis of recent price-action in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Monero.

Bitcoin:

Price: $9144

Market Cap: $164.844bn

Thoughts: As expected in last week’s Market Outlook, Bitcoin spent much of this past week in a lackluster descent, which was highly probable given the volatility of the prior week; consolidation almost guaranteed following extremes in volatility.

Given the level of volatility we experienced that week, I am now thinking that November will be largely a period of consolidation prior to expansion going into year-end. As such, I am expecting price-action to remain range-bound below $11,000 and above $7,250 for the next week or two.

Looking at the Weekly chart, we can see that price printed a bulling engulfing of the prior three weeks, as well as a swing-failure below a key level, which is about as bullish as it gets for me. This week has seen consolidation within the prior week’s range, and I expect another week of similar movement to follow before we see upwards expansion and the unfurling of this bullish pattern of price-action.

Looking at the Daily chart, we can see that price dropped off to the prior resistance of the October range at $8850 and remains bouncing between that level and the low $9000s. Throughout this past week, we have also seen volume steadily decline, which is expected of consolidation periods. I am expecting price to make a sweep of this week’s low next week, possibly to $8300 where the next area of prior resistance lies, with volume remaining low.

Ethereum:

ETH/USD

ETH/BTC

Price: $179.97 (0.0197 BTC)

Market Cap: $19.511bn ( 2,137,280 BTC)

Thoughts: Ethereum seems a little unsure of itself at the moment, which is not unexpected given the volatility in Bitcoin of late; it almost seems as though it is awaiting Bitcoin’s next move before deciding on a direction.

Looking at the ETH/USD chart, price spent the entire week consolidating below the $200 resistance and above the 360-day moving average, though I expect that this pair will mimic BTC/USD a little while longer whilst ETH/BTC figures out its next move.

Concerning ETH/BTC, we can see that price did very little despite BTC/USD spending the week in consolidation, where you might expect ETH/BTC to have jumped a little higher than it did. That said, it is still following the expected trajectory whilst price remains above 0.0188; as such, this next week should see ETH/BTC trade higher and volume pick up.

Monero:

XMR/USD

XMR/BTC

Price: $64.18 (0.007 BTC)

Market Cap: $1.109bn ( 121,528 BTC)

Thoughts: Monero is showing some promise despite breaking to new lows last week, with this week seeing some relief and a move back up towards key levels across its pairs.

Looking at XMR/USD, we can see that price remains below key trendline resistance from July and below the 360-day moving average, but, unlike Ethereum, this past week saw price move back up towards the high printed the week before at $65.70. As I mentioned in last week’s post, however, I am not interested in Monero until both of these key resistances are reclaimed as support.

Looking at XMR/BTC, we can see price moving back up to the level I mentioned last week as my pivot point: 0.0074. If we see a sustained break above this level, then I think we may have found the bottom for Monero and that dump to new lows at 0.006 was likely a spring.

Vertcoin:

VTC/USD

VTC/BTC

Price: $0.28 (3,056 satoshis)

Market Cap: $14.454mn (1,514 BTC)

Thoughts: Vertcoin looks absolutely beautiful at current levels for a long-term position.

Looking at VTC/USD to begin with, we can see that price has broken above trendline resistance from July but remains below the 360-day moving average. I expect we shall see price retesting this MA and likely closing above it this month. The low at $0.173 was possibly the cyclical low, but until we get prices above the major resistance at $0.59, I would treat this as range-based relief.

Looking at VTC/BTC, however, we can see that price is sat historically-significant levels at

3,000 satoshis; an area that has formed the base for accumulation prior the last two major bull cycles. The current low of 2,099 satoshis was the all-time low, which appears to have been a spring with price breaking back into the range that began in August. Range resistance is at 3,560 satoshis, above which I would expect we see disbelief begin to unfold. I will be buying on a breakout and retest above this range resistance.

And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. I hope you’ve enjoyed the read!

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