Get Back on the Horse – EURUSD Day Trades October 17

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Contents

Get Back on the Horse – EUR/USD Day Trades October 17

Losing trades happen–to everyone–so as long as you follow your strategy, and executed the losing trade according to your plan, that losing trade doesn’t matter. A good trade or bad trade should not be determined on the result of the trade, but on whether you executed your plan correctly.

As traders we need to learn to almost appreciate our losing trades, as they may show us something that sets us up for the next winning trade. After a losing trade we need to be able to “get back on the horse,” and sometimes very quickly. Just because we lost on a trade doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take the next signal that comes along.

Don’t Skip Signals

Many traders still fail when they implement a winning strategy because they skip trades after a loss. Since I mostly trade with trends I find I win two or three trades in a row, and then lose one (sometimes two if there is choppiness or a strong retracement) as the trend reverses, then win another two trades or so if the new trend direction continues.

If a loss discourages you enough to skip a couple trades (possibly winning ones), you may end up getting back in the market right when another reversal is due. A valid signal is not nullified just because of personal mood. Although, if you are very emotional about something it is probably best to step away from trading and take the day off, since it’s very hard to stay disciplined when emotions are running high.

Get Back on the Horse

Getting back on the horse after a fall (losing trade) isn’t easy, but doing so will force you to let go of the losing trade and refocus on the market. If it helps, you can think of your losing trades as market probes which help you find the next winning trade. Today provided a great example–lose $145 on one of the trades I really liked the look of, to make $425 several moments later on a trade in the opposite direction. Would you take this trade-off several times a day, if someone offered it to you? You better, because that’s what trading is. Accept the loser, as it is the just the cost of making winners (which should be bigger than the loss).

The EURUSD had been strong during the European session and was continuing to show strength as the US market opened (when bright yellow turns to pale yellow on the chart below). After two runs higher and some hesitation near the top, I expected a deeper pullback. It occurred, and was strong enough for me to start looking for a short trade. The basic strategy employed is outlined in Forex Day Trades – October 7, with additional details in other forex day trading posts.

Figure 1. EURUSD Day Trade Examples – October 17

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Entered a short trade near the upper band, but was stopped out for a loss of 3.5 pips. This stop could have been reduced slightly, but I gave it room to move as my expectation was for another move lower after the strong fall.

Instead, the EURUSD created a higher low, followed by a higher high, indicating a further decline was becoming remote, and instead the price could rally again, in alignment with the overall uptrend of the day.

Despite having just lost a trade, I took a trade in the opposite direction (went long near the lower band) based on the new evidence, and the uptrend did indeed continue.

My buy order was partially filled which gave me two positions in this case, so I exited the first at a Fibonacci level above the recent high for a 10.6 pip gain (had I not ended up with two positions I would have exited everything here), and then exited the rest for a 15.3 pip gain as the price consolidated a bit after the further run up.

There is an important distinction between getting back on the horse and “revenge trading”–where you try to find any trade you can to make your money back. Trading is about reading the market, and being able to adapt to new information. Losing trades occur, so don’t skip another valid signal just because you had a loss. If you are calm and willing to accept your loss, and another valid signal comes along, trade it. Only avoid trades if you are distressed, or, if you have multiple losses in a row you may want to step back and ask yourself why the losses occurred. Maybe it is just a choppy trading day and it is best not to trade, or you may not be executing your strategy as planned and therefore can rectify the situation.

Get Back on the Horse – EUR/USD Day Trades October 17

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Billionaire Steven Cohen Picks up These 2 Stocks on the Dip

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14,000 NSCLC)…We estimate peak U.S. sales for CB-839 of $204 million (risk adj) for KEAP1/ NRF2 mutant NSCLC,” Amin commented.With the analyst pointing out that its two arginase inhibitors in development, INCB001158 as part of a collaboration with Incyte and CB-280, stand to drive additional upside, it makes sense that Amin takes a bullish approach.All in all, the five-star analyst puts a Buy rating on Calithera shares along with a $6 price target. Should the target be met, a twelve-month gain of 27% could be in store. (To watch Amin’s track record, click here)Like the Jeffries analyst, the rest of the Street is bullish on CALA. 4 Buy ratings compared to no Holds or Sells add up to a Strong Buy consensus rating. At $6.67, the average price target is more aggressive than Amin’s and implies upside potential of 41%. (See Calithera stock analysis on TipRanks)Syros Pharmaceuticals (SYRS)With the goal of taking control of gene expression, Syros develops small molecules to help improve the lives of patients. March definitely wasn’t its month, but some members of the Street believe its long-term growth prospects are strong.Cohen falls into this category. Made public on April 2, Point72 pulled the trigger on this healthcare stock. Acquiring a new holding, its purchase of 2.3 million shares puts the firm’s total stake in SYRS at 5.1%.Turning now to the analyst community, Roth Capital’s Zegbeh Jallah told investors that SYRS’s fourth quarter earnings results demonstrate the company’s potential. “We believe that Syros has made steady progress over 2020, and we look forward to the multiple data readouts expected during, particularly the readout of SY-1425 in r/r AML which should be a major catalyst. Cash and cash equivalents are expected to be sufficient to fund operations beyond major catalysts, and into 2022,” he explained.During the quarter, the company released data for its lead candidate, SY-1425, a selective RARα agonist currently in a Phase 2 clinical study in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The therapy was not only able to show a 62% CR/CRi rate and an 82% rate of transfusion independence, but it also produced a fast onset of action, was tolerable as a combination with Azacitidine and validated the biomarker strategy for patient selection.“The focus will likely be on response durability, which will probably be extrapolated to gauge the potential for durable responses in the r/r AML setting, for which Syros hopes to pursue an accelerated regulatory pathway,” Jallah added.On top of this, proof-of-concept data from the Phase 2 study of SY-1425 and Aza in r/r AML, which is slated for release in the fourth quarter of 2020, could drive significant growth for the company. Jallah is also watching out for an update on initial PK/PD and safety data from the Phase 1 study of SY-5609, its first oral and noncovalent CDK7 inhibitor.Bearing this in mind, Jallah has high hopes for SYRS. Along with a Buy rating, the analyst left a $17 price target on the stock, indicating 146% upside potential. (To watch Jallah’s track record, click here)Looking at the consensus breakdown, opinions are split evenly down the middle. With 2 Buys and 2 Holds received in the last three months, the word on the Street is that SYRS is a Moderate Buy. Based on the $9.33 average price target, the upside potential comes in at 35%. (See Syros stock analysis on TipRanks)

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GBP/USD: Cable Collapse Stalls at Six-Month Lows; More Pain in Store?

– The Cable sell-off has continued into another week with the pair now testing six month lows, levels last traded at in mid-December of last year. GBP/USD remains oversold, as it has been on the Daily chart for the entirety of the month of May.

– Last week we looked at bearish continuation , playing lower-high resistance off of a prior area of support. This week presents a more-challenging backdrop, as we’re now testing a deeper support level while the pair remains oversold; but a pullback to the prior area of support around 1.3400 can re-open the door to short-side continuation in GBP/USD.

– Quarterly Forecasts have just been updated, and the Q2 forecast for GBP/USD is available from the DailyFX Trading Guides Page . If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders . And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide .

Want to see how retail traders are currently trading GBP/USD? Click here for GBP/USD Sentiment .

GBP/USD Sell-Off Continues Down to December Lows

The bearish move in the British Pound has continued into another week. After displaying a semblance of support around the key level of 1.3500 in the first couple of weeks of May , GBP/USD posed a downside break at the start of last week to continue the move, and with a heavy outlay of UK data on the calendar, the potential for a deeper bearish move was there. We looked at short-side setups last week , utilizing resistance around that prior area of support. That setup filled-in on Tuesday , after which GBP/USD continued down to fresh lows, taking out two of our three targets in the process.

At this point, we’ve seen a bit of support show-up in a familiar area. The zone that runs from 1.3269-1.3321 is an area that helped to mark resistance in August, October and November of last year; then becoming support in December before the pair launched up to fresh post-Brexit highs.

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Support Shows Around Six-Month Lows

Chart prepared by James Stanley

At this point, the primary complication with longer-term stances around GBP/USD is just how oversold the move has become. RSI has been in oversold territory for the entire month of May, and while this doesn’t preclude further declines, it does make the prospect of such a bit more distant.

GBP/USD Daily Chart: Oversold While Sitting at Six-Month Lows

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Moving Forward

With the bearish trend as built-in on the pair as it has been, traders will likely want to continue to move forward with a short-side bias. While a situation of this nature would normally open the possibility of reversals, this is an area where traders will likely want to be very careful. Both themes in the pair have been rather vivid of recent, with a really strong US Dollar showing against most major currencies and a really weak British Pound; so looking for a reversal here is effectively betting on two themes to change or reverse at once. While this is possible, it’s not a high-probability type of scenario.

Instead, traders can look for a pullback in this move to open the door for additional short-side setups, similar to what was looked at last week. This way, risk can be managed so that if a reversal does take place, the loss can be mitigated.

Such an instance can be watched for around the 1.3400-handle. This is an area from where a prior swing-low helped to set swing-high resistance on Thursday of last week, and this is also a level that can open the door for stops go be placed above the 1.3500-zone. If we do see prices pull back to this level while remaining below the 1.3421 high, short-side strategies can be implemented, targeting a re-test of 1.3300 followed by secondary targets at 1.3224 and then 1.3117.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart: Lower-High Resistance Potential Keeps Door Open for Shorts

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD -pairs such as EUR/USD , GBP/USD , USD/JPY , AUD/USD . Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator .

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley , Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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