Labor Day EURUSD Trading (45 ITM)

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Labor Day EUR/USD Trading (4/5 ITM)

September 1, 2020

Unfortunately, I’m doing this write-up a week later than I wanted to. But school often consumes a lot of my time, so naturally if I do any trading my write-ups will often be delayed until I find a spare 1-2 hours to go back and analyze the charts, take screenshots, and construct the post about it. Others might find it helpful to consult their own charts regarding the trades that I take in addition to whatever chart images I provide in the article, which also makes sense for the sake of perspective.

Anyhow, the U.S. Labor Day was actually a busy trading day for me. Naturally, you would expect the markets to be pretty lackadaisical given the near total absence of U.S. traders in the market, given banks and big financial institutions take the day off. Indeed, volume was naturally lighter than normal, but the market still moved relatively well despite it all. Consequently, there were an above-average number of trading opportunities that I was able to take advantage of.

When I began watching the EUR/USD around 2AM EST, price was coming up from its daily pivot point and approaching resistance 1. The touch of the level occurred on the 2:10 candle, but didn’t set up in the way I like to use as price action confirmation. That is, there wasn’t an immediate rejection and price closed above resistance 1.

Nevertheless, it did hold and came back down to re-touch the pivot level once again. Given this sharp rejection of pivot, I would have considered a call option on a subsequent re-touch of the level, but resistance 1 was touched on the very next candle. It is rare that you might expect a test of one daily pivot point only to have that candle touch another. But that was simply the way it was today, with the pivot and resistance 1 separated by just over five pips.

With this rejection of resistance 1 on the 2:30 candle, I got into a put option on the touch of the level on the following candle. I had a nice three-pip drop initially, but this gain was wiped out on the following candle to bring it back to break-even, before winning by a small fraction of a pip. I guess if you get nervous on the eventual outcome of trades, this would have been a real nail-biter, as it went back and forth between in-the-money and out-of-the-money during the final few minutes.

The market moved above resistance 1 after the close of that trade, but stalled about five pips above the level before giving the indication that it could come falling back. This, of course, would set up resistance 1 as a support level, and hence an area to consider call options, looking for a bounce back up.

After about a half-hour trickle back down, price finally touched resistance 1 and formed a small doji on the 3:40 candle. There was practically no movement on this 3:40 candle, which is a good thing in that it shows indecisiveness. And indecisiveness is always a good thing when it comes to a trading style predicated on reversals of some sort. If a market reaches a price level and stalls, that can only support the idea that there quite possibly isn’t enough overall volume in the market at the moment to break that level. Of course, more volume could enter the market and break the level, but when making trading decisions you only have the market before you on which to base these judgments.

So I got into a call option on the touch of resistance 1 on the 3:45 candle. This trade won by 2-3 pips.

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This trade was based on the same general premise as the second trade. When it was clear that the market had a lean toward staying above resistance 1, I got into the same exact trade (touch of R1) geared for a 4:00AM expiry. Given that this trade had the same entry and expiry as the previous one, this also won by 2-3 pips.

After 4:15AM, the market spent the remainder of the hour ascending toward resistance 2. There seemed to be a bit of resistance in the middle of the resistance 1-resistance 2 channel, due to the brief reversal that had occurred there after 4AM, but I didn’t really expect it to hold much value and it ultimately did not.

Instead resistance 2 became the new target. When there was a nice rejection of it on the 4:50 candle, I got into a re-touch on the 4:55, for a 5:00AM expiry. Unfortunately, this trade did not hold and I lost by a bit over one pip.

Despite the failure of the previous trade, price showed continued sensitivity toward resistance 2 as a price level. Price never went more than 4-5 pips above it and there were two rejections on the 5:05 and 5:10 candles.

I felt at this point resistance 2 had been established as a robust support level, so on the next touch I got into a call option on the 5:20 candle. This was practically in favor the entire time and won by just over two pips.

So despite the realities of lower trading volume on a national holiday (with respect to the U.S.), I was still able to find quality set-ups to trade and wound up with a 4/5 in-the-money day.

And please, if you ever have questions for me, never hesitate to let me know and I will get back to you as soon as possible.

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UK MORNING BRIEFING: Shares Open Higher On Interest Rate Assurance

Fri, 24th Jan 2020 08:15

LONDON (Alliance News) – UK shares have opened higher Friday, as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney backed off of forward guidance and said there is “no immediate need” to raise interest rates.

Royal Mail has reported a 2% increase in like-for-like revenues for the first half of the year, driven by further growth in its parcels revenues. However, the company said parcel volumes were flat despite strong online sales reported by UK retailers over the Christmas period.

Goldman Sachs has cut Dairy Crest to Conviction Sell from Sell, while Berenberg has cut GlaxoSmithKline to Hold from Buy.

Here is what you need to know at the UK market open:

MARKETS

FTSE 100: up 7.26 at 6,780.54
FTSE 250: up 19.05 at 15,999.18
AIM ALL-SHARE: up 1.43 at 871.92

DJIA: closed down 175.99 or 1.1% at 16,197.35
S&P 500: closed down 16.40 or 0.9% at 1,828.46

GBP-USD: up at USD1.6654
EUR-USD: down at USD1.3685

GOLD: down at USD1,257.90 per ounce
OIL (Brent): up at USD107.58 a barrel

(changes since end of previous GMT day)

ECONOMICS AND GENERAL

Friday’s Key Economic Events still to come

09:00 Italy Retail Sales
09:30 UK BBA Mortgage Approvals
12:05 UK BOE Governor Carney speech
13:30 Canada Consumer Price Index

The Bank of England will consider wide range of economic indicators when assessing the need for higher borrowing costs, Governor Mark Carney told the BBC. The case for a rate hike would be examined in the coming Inflation Report, the BoE chief said. Policymakers will look at overall conditions in the whole labor market, not just one indicator, he added. Carney said there is “no immediate need” to raise interest rates. Any change, when it comes, would be very gradual, he said in an interview recorded in Davos, Switzerland.

Sentiment among British households regarding the value of their homes improved to an all-time high in January, data from a survey by Markit Economics and Knight Frank revealed. The future house price sentiment index climbed to an all-time high of 72.3 in January from 70.5 in December, indicating that prices are expected to rise at the fastest pace since records started. Readings above 50 indicate improvement in sentiment, while those below suggest deterioration.

Fitch Ratings affirmed Germany’s credit ratings at ‘AAA’, citing decline in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio. The outlook is ‘stable’. “Germany continues to have the components of a declining public debt path,” Fitch said in a statement. “The economy is growing, the budget position is relatively favourable and nominal interest rates are low.”

Iranian President Hassan Rowhani called Thursday for better relations with the US but ruled out any overtures to Israel. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Rowhani said Iran-US ties had entered a new phase in recent months, noting that both governments sat at the same table with other world powers to negotiate a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme.

The US National Security Agency’s telephone metadata programme is illegal and should be shut down, a government privacy board found in a report released Thursday. The programme, which collects phone call records on a massive scale, has provided only minimal benefits in counterterrorism efforts, according to a narrow majority of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board.

Thousands of anti-government protesters held out on the streets of Kiev on Thursday, as a 24-hour ultimatum by the opposition calling for President Viktor Yanukovych to step down approached. In a first concession, parliament said it would discuss whether the government should resign at an extraordinary session next week. A new round of talks between opposition leaders and Yanukovych on Thursday ended with no breakthrough. The EU commissioner for enlargement was to travel to Kiev Friday to mediate between the government and the opposition, the European Commission said.

A car bombing early Friday hit a police headquarters in central Cairo, leaving at least three dead, state television reported. The attack also injured at least 47, health authorities said. It was not immediately clear if the casualties were police or civilians. State-run newspaper al-Ahram reported online that one of the dead was a suicide attacker. The blast damaged the building and an adjoining museum. The bombing came a day after five policemen were killed in an attack in the city of Beni Sueif, south of Cairo.

The South Sudanese government and rebels on signed a ceasefire deal Thursday aimed at ending a five-week conflict in which thousands of people have been killed and 500,000 displaced. Negotiators representing President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Riek Machar signed the agreement in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa after peace talks mediated by the East African bloc IGAD had deadlocked for more than two weeks.

Thailand’s Constitutional Court met to decide whether the country’s charter allows for a postponement of the scheduled February 2 general election. The court’s nine judges met in a closed session and were expected to issue their decision Friday. The Election Commission requested the ruling, arguing that it cannot hold safe and successful polls in the current political circumstances, after two months of street demonstrations.

BROKER RATING CHANGES
———
JPMORGAN CUTS COMPASS GROUP TO ‘NEUTRAL’ (‘OVERWEIGHT’) – TARGET 1060 (950) P

GOLDMAN CUTS DAIRY CREST TO ‘CONV. SELL LIST’ (‘SELL’) – TARGET 351 (404) P

BERENBERG CUTS GLAXOSMITHKLINE TO ‘HOLD’ (‘BUY’) – PRICE TARGET 1750 (1790) PENCE

TRADERS: KEPLER CHEUVREUX STARTS BG GROUP WITH ‘HOLD’ – PRICE TARGET 1300 PENCE

TRADERS: KEPLER CHEUVREUX STARTS BP WITH ‘BUY’ – PRICE TARGET 545 PENCE

BERENBERG INITIATES TT ELECTRONICS WITH ‘BUY’ – TARGET 247 PENCE

BERENBERG INITIATES DOMINO PRINTING WITH ‘HOLD’ – TARGET 860 PENCE

COMPANIES – FTSE 100

Royal Mail PLC reported a 2% increase in like-for-like revenues for the first half of the year, driven by further growth in its parcels revenues. However, the company said parcel volumes were flat for the period as its new size-based pricing meant some customers decided not to send some larger items via Royal Mail. Overall, like-for-like parcel revenues were up 8% over the nine months to end-December, driven by the new pricing structure. The lack of volume growth in parcels may come as a disappointment to the markets, which have seen retailers reporting huge growth in online sales over the Christmas period.

Weir Group PLC said it had won a USD98 million, or GBP59 million, two-year contract to provide general maintenance services on Lukoil’s West Qurna-2 oilfield in southern Iraq. The engineering company has invested over USD8 million in establishing a service centre in the town of Basra.

ITM Power PLC said it has secured a contract with AMEC PLC and National Grid PLC to assess efficient usage of Power-to-Gas energy storage. The energy storage and clean fuel company said the project will look at the cost and energy benefit of deploying Power-to-Gas technology at specific sites on the UK gas network. FTSE100 engineering and project management company AMEC, which is a major supplier to National Grid, will undertake a third-party assessment of the cost benefit analysis.

COMPANIES – FTSE 250

Close Brothers Group PLC said it is expecting a strong result for the first-half of its financial year, as the recovering economy boosted all three of the FTSE 250 financial services firm’s divisions. In a trading update ahead of its first-half results for the six months ending January 31, Close Brothers said its positive first-quarter performance has so far carried on into the second quarter, adding that it is confident in its outlook for the full financial year.

Workspace Group PLC said like-for-like rent roll increased 1.8% in the third quarter while total rent roll has increased 7.6% to GBP56.7 million in the nine months since March 31, 2020. In an interim management statement for the period October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020 the commercial property provider said like-for like roll increased to GBP46.5 million during the period.

Cairn Energy Says Contacted By Indian Tax Authorities To Discuss FY 2007 Assessments; Says Indian Tax Authorities Have Instructed It To Hold Its Shares In Cairn India During Talks

3i Infrastructure Says European Portfolio Is Performing Well; Says Portfolio Income From Beginning Of Current Financial Year To Dec 31 Was GBP63.6M; Says Operating Levels Are Consistent With Plans Of Paying 5.5% Dividend

COMPANIES – ALL-SHARE AND AIM

President Energy PLC said the results of an independent audit of its prospective resources are substantially ahead of expectations. The oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in South America said the audit, by the consultancy company RPS Group PLC, was across its three 2020 drilling target prospect areas in Paraguay and based on extensive seismic studies of the sites conducted by President over the last 12 months. The company said that according to RPS the three target areas are now estimated to have a gross mean unrisked prospective resource of 1.09 billion barrels of oil equivalent, which equates to 647 million barrels of mean unrisked oil equivalent to President and 130 million barrels of mean risked resources.

ITM Power PLC said it has secured a contract with AMEC PLC and National Grid PLC to assess efficient usage of Power-to-Gas energy storage. The energy storage and clean fuel company said the project will look at the cost and energy benefit of deploying Power-to-Gas technology at specific sites on the UK gas network. FTSE100 engineering and project management company AMEC, which is a major supplier to National Grid, will undertake a third-party assessment of the cost benefit analysis.

Avacta Says H1 Trading Was In Line With Market Expectations

Miton Group To Sell Miton Capital Partners For GBP6.4M; Would Sell Liverpool Fund Management Business To Seneca Investment Managers; Expects 2020 Adjusted Pretax Profit Of GBP4.5M, In Line With Market Expectations

Tower Resources Says Considerable Progress Made On Namibia Farmout Deal

Strategic Minerals Knows Of No Reason For Recent Share Price Movement

Charles Stanley Q3 Revenue GBP36.7M Vs GBP31.1M; Client Funds Up 13.4% In 9-Mo Since March 31 At GBP20.1B

Brooks Macdonald Says Trading In Line With Expectations; Third Party Assets Under Administration Are Now In Excess Of GBP160M

Judges Scientific Says Good Organic Sales Growth; Strength Of Sterling Not Helpful For Export Driven Industries But Has Order Book Strong

Victoria Oil & Gas Says USD16.3M Paid By RSM Towards December 23 Cash Call; Agrees Audit To Determine Final Balance Payable By Or To Be Refunded To RSM

SpaceandPeople FY Gross Revenue GBP36.8M Vs GBP30.1M; Expects FY Pretax Profit To Be In Line With Market Expectations

Serviced Office Group Sells County House, Beckenham For GBP5.1M

Finsbury Food Confident Reporting A Year-On-Year Rise In Pretax Profit But Cost Inflation Will Hit H2

COMPANIES – OTHER

UK department store chain House of Fraser will move ahead with an initial public offering of shares on the London Stock Exchange after takeover discussions with French retailer Galeries Lafayette have ended, the Financial Times reported. The FT said the House of Fraser’s IPO, which would value it about GBP350 million, probably will take place in the second half of this year, citing “people familiar with the situation”. The FT said House of Fraser declined to comment on Thursday.

Friday’s Scheduled AGMs/EGMs

Artilium
Topps Tiles
Henderson European Focus Trust

By Tom Waite; [email protected]; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2020 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.

Avacta Raises More-Than-Expected GBP3.8 Million In Share Placing

Avacta Raises More-Than-Expected GBP3.8 Million In Share Placing

Avacta raises ?3.75m, expects minimal impact from pandemic

(Sharecast News) – Biotherapeutics company Avacta Group announced on Monday that, in response to “substantial” institutional interest, it has conditionally raised gross proceeds of ?3.75m under a placing, through the issue of 20,833,333 new ordinary shares at a price of 18p each.

Avacta Announces GBP2 Million Subscription With Two Subscribers

Avacta Announces GBP2 Million Subscription With Two Subscribers

Avacta Inks Cell And Gene Therapy Deal With Joint Venture AffyXell

Avacta Inks Cell And Gene Therapy Deal With Joint Venture AffyXell

Avacta signs collaboration deal with Daewoong joint venture

(Sharecast News) – Biotherapeutics and reagents developer Avacta Group announced on Monday that it has signed a collaboration and license agreement with AffyXell Therapeutics – the recently-established joint venture with Daewoong Pharmaceutical – to develop Affimer proteins to be used by AffyXell for the generation of new cell and gene therapies.

Avacta Demonstrates Initial Proof Of Concept For Cancer Drug TMAC

Avacta Demonstrates Initial Proof Of Concept For Cancer Drug TMAC

Affimer Unit Performance Helps Avacta Revenue Beat Market Forecasts

Affimer Unit Performance Helps Avacta Revenue Beat Market Forecasts

Avacta doubles revenues thanks to LG Chem milestone payment

(Sharecast News) – Biotherapeutics development outfit Avacta doubled revenues in the 17-month period ended 31 December 2020 as it was boosted by an initial milestone payment from LG Chem.

Avacta Group Hires Vectura Group CFO Fry As Non-Executive Director

Avacta Group Hires Vectura Group CFO Fry As Non-Executive Director

Avacta Group enters joint venture with South Korea’s Daewoong

(Sharecast News) – Biotherapeutics and reagents developer Avacta Group has agreed to establish a joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong Pharmaceutical, it announced on Wednesday, and to enter into a collaboration and license agreement for the joint venture to develop the next generation of cell and gene therapies, incorporating its ‘Affimer’ proteins to enhance the immune-modulatory effects.

Avacta To Establish Gene Therapy Joint Venture With Daewoong Pharma

Avacta To Establish Gene Therapy Joint Venture With Daewoong Pharma

Avacta Expands Contract With LG Chem After First Programme Completes

Avacta Expands Contract With LG Chem After First Programme Completes

Avacta Group reports solid progress in partnership with LG Chem

(Sharecast News) – Biotherapeutics developer Avacta Group updated the market on the ‘Affimer’ therapeutics development partnership and license agreement with LG Chem Life Sciences, part of the South Korean LG Group, to develop Affimer therapeutics in several disease areas on Wednesday.

Avacta Non-Executive Sam Williams Steps Down After General Meeting

Avacta Non-Executive Sam Williams Steps Down After General Meeting

Avacta Plans GBP9 Million Fundraise; Loss Widens On Research Costs

Avacta Plans GBP9 Million Fundraise; Loss Widens On Research Costs

Nachrichten – Derivate

Die Kurse deutscher Staatsanleihen sind am Dienstag gesunken. Im Tagesverlauf haben die Anleihen ihre Kursverluste immer weiter ausgeweitet. Der für den deutschen Anleihemarkt richtungweisende Euro-Bund-Future fiel zuletzt um 0,91 Prozent auf …

Diskussion: Euro-Bund-Future

Wertpapier: BUND Future

Mit der Hoffnung auf ein Nachlassen der Corona-Pandemie hat der deutsche Aktienmarkt seinen Erholungskurs am Dienstag etwas langsamer fortgesetzt. In der Spitze legte der Dax noch um mehr als fünf Prozent zu, reduzierte seine Gewinne zum Schluss …

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