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Monday’s Trading of the EUR/USD – Attention to the Trend
Having consideration for the trend is a large part of trading successfully. Ideally, all “newbie” traders should adhere to the idea of not necessarily trading with the trend, but rather not trading against it. It’s the best way to at least ensure some degree of avoiding poor trade results, in that you’re not stacking a very important factor against you. As I’ve stated in previous articles, trend trading is the one form that has stood the test of time as a profitable trading venture. It’s really something that’s been helping financial market traders earn profits for over a hundred years at this point. And ideally, it should be used in some form or another in trading in which profits are derived from investing into the belief that the market will be going in one direction or the other.
Indeed, taking trades against the trend can be perfectly viable in some circumstances, but it should probably wait until you’re a bit further in your trading career. Even then, these types of set-ups should naturally be taken more sparingly than those that coincide with the direction of the trend. Or in overall neutral markets, where price doesn’t have a predilection for one direction or the other.
I did write a post a few weeks ago from the time of this writing regarding how to effectively trade against a trend. It can be found here.
Monday’s Trading of the EUR/USD
1. First off, I know the white line in the images in this post might seem strange given there is no obvious reference as to what it pertains to based on the candle arrangements representing the price history. It is simply the 1.33961 price level that came into play during Friday’s trading. It could easily have been something to delete, but I was still curious as to how price might act around it so I kept it on the chart. I hope it doesn’t serve to cause any confusion when looking at some the images in this article. But as fate would have it, I did use this price level for my first trade.
2. The support 1 level of 1.33944 was the first thing in play today. It did act as support at its first touch at 2:30AM EST, but there wasn’t a clear rejection of this level or any hint that buyers wanted to move this market higher, as the price only moved back up a couple pips.
When it came down to 1.33944 a second time, there was a false break, nearly a five-pip wick on the 2:45 candle, which is large considering the time of day. Another attempted close below support 1 occurred on the following candle, but the buyers once again pushed it back up.
Based on my understanding of market dynamics, usually when price falsely breaks a level (i.e., moves down briefly only to come back up to the support or resistance level), it tells me that the direction of the false break is likely to prevail in time. In this case, the buyers were able to preserve their desire to keep the market around support 1 and near the 1.3400 whole number; the sellers were likely bound to win out eventually given the surge they were able to create. The buyers’ wish to keep the market that high is artificial in a way, and the sellers are demonstrating that their ability to push the market lower is genuine and that any up movement is likely to be merely temporary and hanging on by a thread.
3. When price finally broke support 1 on the 3:00 candle, support 2 became the next area of interest as an area for call options. While a call option trade did set up the way I normally want it to based on price action around the predetermined price level (which serves as the entry point), I passed on it due to the downtrend at the moment.
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To me, it felt entirely conceivable that price could continue going down. Trends often do breakout within an hour of the European market open. The trade would have worked out, but I felt fine passing on it. I would later do the same thing at support 2 about an hour later.
4. On the way back up to support 1 (1.33944), I was interested in put options at this area. But given that price had also formed a congestion area above support 1 recently, I decided to wait a bit and see if it would return back to up to the top of that. In terms of a price level, it roughly coincided with where the white line is located – 1.33961.
Support 1 wouldn’t have been a bad trade. There was a touch and rejection and a subsequent re-touch, but I believed some movement back up to the top of the previous congestion (again, where the white line is situated roughly) could be likely, at least possibly in the form of wicks. This did occur and once I saw rejection on the white line and price seemingly hitting a ceiling here, I decided to get into a touch of 1.33961 on the 3:30 candle.
This trade had some time to develop, which I liked. All four of the five-minute candles that encompassed the price movement during this trade were red, and I had a three-pip winner by expiration.
5. Once support 2 was broken, I began considering that level for put options. The trend was clearly down, so support 2 (1.33890) could reasonably serve as a good area for that.
Price did get up to 1.33890 on the 4:50 candle, but there was a close above the level. Given that it did not set up to my liking there I waited for perhaps another opportunity. This came into clearer view just before 6AM EST. The market got up to 1.33890 on the 5:45 candle, but there was a decent charge up to this level so I waited. There was a break and close right at the level on the 5:55, followed by a nice long wick down on the 6:00. This told me that selling was still in play so I got into the re-touch of 1.33890 on the 6:05.
This trade was a bit of a rollercoaster at first. It initially broke against me by a couple pips before closing back below at the ten-minutes-to-go mark. Then the next candle stayed in the money for a little while before closing out of it by a little bit over a pip. The closing candle made a slight comeback but I still ended up losing by around half-a-pip.
Overall, 1/2 ITM today, but still running at about 70% ITM for the summer overall.
Trading Outlook for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold Price & More
The generally quiet month continues as the quarter draws towards its conclusion. Perhaps the Fed can pop it free for movement, but then again, perhaps not. The euro broke out last week and is sitting above support, can it make good on the breakout through the rest of the week? USD/JPY is trading higher in a neatly formed channel, traders can use it as a short-term guide. Gold remains in a historically tight range, avoiding until it can break free.
- EUR/USD trying to hold onto breakout levels
- USD/JPY has a tight channel traders can use as guidance
- Gold price remains stuck in historically tight range
See how sentiment can factor into helping with making trading decisions via the IG Client Sentiment page.
EUR/USD trying to hold onto breakout levels
On Friday, the euro finally broke out above levels in the mid-11700s which had kept on a lid on price several prior occasions. The breakout was solid but price action since hasn’t led to more follow-through. The old levels of resistance are acting as support so far, and as long as that remains the case then look for higher prices to unfold despite Monday’s semi-bearish turnabout. Looking to 11852 as next up as resistance on further strength. If price sinks back below 11700, then more choppy trading could be in store and to the sidelines we’ll head.
EUR/USD 4-hr Chart (Trying to hold on to breakout)
To see what’s been driving the Euro, check out the Quarterly Report
USD/JPY has a tight channel traders can use as guidance
USD/JPY continues to forge on higher in grinding fashion, which has resulted in a very steady channel. But as price rises towards the July high the channel could come under fire. Should the underside parallel break it doesn’t necessarily mean USD/JPY will reverse lower, but it will weaken the current trend structure. Longs can use it to as a means of assessing risk while would-be shorts can look to a channel break as increasing the odds of seeing weakness set in.
USD/JPY 4-hr Chart (Channel guidance)
Gold price remains stuck in historically tight range
The brutally (and historically) tight range in gold persists and persists. It feels like gold won’t ever move again, but this is just when attention should start to perk up as these situations often lead to volatile price movement. If the monthly high (1212) or low (1187) aren’t broken by the close on Friday, this month’s range will rank as the smallest in over 22 years. That almost certainly won’t last another month.
Gold Daily Chart (Waiting for range-break)
To find out what’s been driving gold, check out the Quarterly Gold Report
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Trading the EUR/USD
Trading the EUR/USD
Hello, I would just like to start a discussion on trading the EUR/USD. This will be a place where we would share charts, trade setups, trades, trading ideas, best trading times, etc. Also, perhaps other traders can start similar threads regarding other popular major pairs like GBP/USD or even major crosses. Thanks.
This would be great itrade2, but I am wondering if we could be able to attach charts there the discussion will be very useful.
Colton, can you do something about this, where It would be possible to attach charts into our discussion?
Gee, I guess I’ll lead off by example. Chicago time 18:15, looking at a 1 minute chart, Eur/Usd breaks out of it’s consolidation area from the morning session sell-off. Is there enough buying momentum to take out 1.4040 target?
Is 1.4040 a possible price cycle pivot area? What are the fib retracements? Let’s have some good/fun technical dialogue. bzzzz.
I have the EURUSD HITTING an up trend line we should have a bounce up for 9/7/11
Pah! – could have done without that 95 pip spike aroound 8:05-8:10 GMT when the German courts reported their rejection of the bail out suit. Cost me 25 pips – thank you stop loss. Fortunately I recovered 23 pips on the upward part of the spike.
News – don’t you just love it!
I find trading this pair is best starting in final hour of Asian session into London opening (7:00 – 8:00AM GMT). I find it’s often quieter in the afternoon leading to things warming up for the last hour or so. New York opening (1:00PM GMT) doesn’t generally have a major impact on trends. Assuming nothing major is announced like the Swiss with their decision to peg to the EUR causing a rapid overvaluation.
That spoiled my initial plan yesterday, causing me to ditch out early of my EUR/USD short positions. Ouch! I was kicking myself for deviating from my strategy until I realised the fundamental weak picture had not changed with the EUR, and regained losses easily on the inevitable retrenchment (making new lows not seen since Jul 17), for an easy 80+ pips.
This morning I made another 58 pips on the bounce. I tried a new tack today, basing trading largely on a 4 & 1hr chart. I was surprised to see the position hit my target in less than 2 hours! I placed a GBP/USD long position at the same time because of the strong correlation with the EUR, but this hasn’t closed out yet (as expected at time of writing), and is just 28 pips ahead. Still winning so far. Lesson learned for me: stick to the plan, and try not to be overly distracted by market noise. Short term technicals are one thing, underlying fundamentals quite another. This is VERY uncharacteristic of me, as I play the game with zero emotional involvement.I got spooked because of my uncertainty of where the swiss 1.20 peg would put the euro knowing the swiss government had committed “unlimited” funds to supporting this ceiling.
With the SNB trying to hold the EURCHF above 1.20 that gives the opportunity to hedge EURUSD with USDCHF. What are your thoughts on this?
Seems to me USD still remains comparatively stronger, and if I were to trade these pairs I would be long on USD. It will be interesting to see how long SNB props up the EUR given it’s inherent weakness across eurozone economies. It’s probably going to be an expensive failure longer term in my view. Even the swiss won’t have a bottomless pit of cash and patience, even if it does provide a short term remedy for their exports.
Back to scalping EURUSD & GBPUSD today after experimenting with other strategies. It was a “whippy” market to say the least, although I managed to grind out a fairly respectable +62 pips on EURUSD, and +132 pips on GBPUSD. 17/18 good trades. My plan today was to grab small 10+ pips moves as they occur. Seemed to work out pretty well. Apart from studying price action, I used the MACD & RSI indicators as guides. Not bad, but I’m still trying to get to grips with a longer term strategy on trading bigger moves over a longer period of time. Scalping is fun, but I’d rather not be staring at two monitors all morning.
How’s everybody else doing?
After Curtis’ class I feel more confident in setting up my platform and making executions. I just finished manually paper trading the EUR/USD. I took 5 trades 3 winner’s 2 losers, I ended up with a positive $350.00. Now I just have to perform on the MT4 Platform. I need get some sleep, trading these hours is fun but I’m use to morning sessions.
Craig W., you sound like a swing trader. I’ve come to realize that starting with 10k and with a 2% daily draw down, it’s going to be tough, especially if you can take more heat knowing it’ll eventually go your way. Your thoughts.
They will reset your account? – Really. I thought that if you lose in the Demo, you would have to build it back up. That’s why I didn’t want to use it until I understood how the MT4 Platform worked. I didn’t want to buy Eur/Usd by clicking something that meant sell, or to go flat but ended up scaling, etc.
Since they’ll reset the demo account then I’ll go CLICK HAPPY till I figure out the MT4 Platform. Thanks Craig W.
Sure will, if you lose all your initial $10k grubstake, you’ll just get another $10k. It turns out gains/losses roll forward to the next month too. If you go under your initial deposit the stats report will print the amount as the “Absolute Drawdown” in your detailed statement. Run your detailed report by right clicking any trade on your MT4 “Account History” tab. Do this weekly to track your Profit Factor, and other interesting facts about your trading.
I thought the account reset to $10k at the start of every new month, so at the end of the month, just for kicks to see how it feels to watch a huge loss unfold, I deliberately cratered my account just to see what happens when I leave out key pieces of my trading strategy. I contrarily bought EURUSD when fundamentals & technicals screamed sell. I pulled the plug when I hit the floor back at $10k. Over $6k in losses. Heheheh! Never done that before, and sure as heck would not have done that with real money in play.
At the time I figured it would just start out again at $10k anyway, so what the heck. I got to feel what a huge loss feels like, and reinforce key points in trading. Never in my life have I lost “money” like that before, and it was a valuable lesson to me.
If Shawn and the guys were watching that, I bet they thought I’d lost my mind. Sorry guys, I was just playing. Won’t be doing that again, because I actually want to get funded.
This is just a caution so don’t take it personal, its not meant that way. This was given to me early on by my mentor. Trading is like any other profession. I liken it to professional sports.
Regardless of what you think or intend you what you do in practice you will do in the game. Pro athletes know this, pro traders know this. So, never, ever, violate any of your rules even on practice accounts. So, even though you and I know that would never be that reckless with real money you have just told your subconscience that if it did happen, its not that bad.
I pray this never happens to you but the extension of what I’m saying would go like this:
You are having a great month and need this last trade to go in your direction to make your goal. Not looking good so you violate your rule, just this once, and add to a loss because you know you got this, just got in a bit too early. Low and behold, it works, price came back in your favor, you exit and make your goal, plus some. You feel great, not realizing that is actually the worst day in your trading life, because a small violation didn’t hurt.
So now, going forward, you stick to your rules most of the time and rarely violate them but when you do, its not that bad. You can see where I’m going with this. the end of the story is a blown out account.
Think about Jeter in batting practice, intentally taking wacks, just to see what it feels like (yes I’m a Yankees fan) or Phil Mickelson on the practice green intentially putting wide to see what it feels like, doesn’t make sense does it.
Sorry, I don’t intend to lecture, just keep in mind the fact, regardless of what you think or intend you will do, in the game, what you do in practice.
Craig this isn’t meant as a response to you, you probable think I’m a know it all AH by now. But for those who are interested in this concept that ” regardless of what you think or intend, what you do in practice you will do in the game” read “Talent is Overrated” by Geoff Covin; not a book on trading but rather on achieving greatness. Available in audio form at Audible.com
Thanks Jerold, by the way are you funded? If so what level?
Finally got out of my very first trade on the MT4 Platform, and what a trade. Not how I would normally trade, but patience, discipline and good technical reading of charts can give a bit of confidence to my conviction. Now I can trade my scalps correctly and build up my small account to a level where I can hold my swing trades for a few days. bzzzzz.
Anyone thinks eur/usd is going to take out 1.31350 by the end of the year?
Craig W., are you trading the Gbp/Usd, if so what time do you like trading the Gbp/Usd?
Jerold, nicely put, and you are spot on. Don’t worry, I don’t feel targetted by your responce, and I certainly don’t think negatively of you, or any other Apiary member. We’re all here to learn, and I’m trying to learn the game the best I can. I’m still finding my feet. Yup, sometimes I do get “lucky”, and you’re absolutely correct, it sucks! Because I know the trade should have gone my way because of adherence to proper trading principles, and not a kind twist of fate. Some things I try work out OK, and other things I experiment with turn out horribly in terms of pips lost, but invaluable in experience. It’s all good, and I thank you for your comments. I will be happy when I settle into a consistent system I’m comfortable with. It’ll come eventually, with patience, and an open mind. For now, I’m happy experimenting with different approaches gleaned from what I see, and hear on this site and other sources. It’s how I APPLY all of this new information I’m getting to grips with. It’s funny, sometimes I look at a chart in dismay, and think “what the heck is going on here?”.
itrade2, Congrats on your first trade! The first of many successful steps towards profitable trading. I trade GBPUSD generally in the mornings (except Mondays). I live in the UK, so being around for the opening in London is not a problem. I start by looking where the Asian session finishes, and what happens in the first half hour of the london session. It’s amazing to see the frenzy of activity up & down before settling into what I think is a tradable pattern. Looking at EURUSD, & EURGBP offers some clues before I think about trading GBPUSD.
Thanks Craig W. I’ll look at GBP/USD at the London Open. I have another question to you or to anyone reading this.
I paper traded Aud/Jpy just now (yes, paper traded because I’ve never traded this pair before) and I went long at 75.5410 and exited at 74.7800. Question: Can someone show me the math on converting this to US Dollars?
oops I meant, I went long 75.5410 and exited the trade at 75.7800 in AUD/JPY.
(75.78 – 75.541) x lot size / USDJPY
Hmm, technical charts seem to agree with him.
The shark exposed finally. Nice video.
Frustrating week when adjusting to a new style of trading – that’s fine, I’ll still succeed.
Do you have what it takes to trade a Million Dollar Account?
This is just 1 of 18 episodes. Watch the rest over the weekend:
Hmm, let’s see if EUR/USD will fill the gap. 1.3380. It’s a slow push up.
Is anyone using Shawn’s M5 Momentum Blast strategy? I am really liking it.
M5 Momentum Blaster? Wow, I don’t see it on the indicator list. But that’s alright, ever since they implemented the 2% rule, I had to adjust my trading style. It’s just a matter of time before I get back what I loss.
So who’s still trading EUR/USD?
And how are you guys/gals doing?
Anyone know where it might close by the end of this week?
Anyone notice that All the Majors are following EUR/USD?
itrade thanx for the video series,i think its same as apiary recruiting traders
Thanks gerhard, I didn’t even know that link existed. Now if only Apiary had a place that explains how we get paid.
I wanted to hold my position over the weekend, but finding a fine balance between scalping, day trading and swing trading are sign of a well rounded trader.
Since the implementation of the 2% rule I’ve been nickel and dimming EUR/USD. I have to be careful NOT developing into a “Penny Wise – Dollar Foolish” trader.
But I chose the conservative approach, better safe than sorry. lol. There will be lots of opportunities to trade aggressive. I exited my last trade for the week for 4 pips.
buy 1.00 eurusd 1.38774 1.38815 41.00
Craig W., are you still trading EUR/USD?
Anyone in the HIVE, care to guess what or where EUR/USD is going next week? Come on, guess, if you’re wrong SO What. Don’t be discouraged if you’re wrong, just make sure it doesn’t affect your equity too much. lol. I’m serious, you can’t take being wrong too seriously if you want to succeed in your trading career.
Ok, I’ll start if off. Conservatively, I see 1.4000 being filled. Aggressively, I see it hitting 1.4140 or higher. So if you’re like Goldie Locks and the three bears, I would go for the middle of 1.4070.
There, so have a great weekend, have fun, and always – Happy Trading!
Ok.. I see a consolidation zone that needs to be cleared – above 1.39362 from 15th September. Using a 4 week ATR that would put a potential target near the high of 1.42810. This also matches up with a 61.8% retracement from the May 4th high/October 4th low. However, there’s a small hiccup in the middle around the 1.41000 area (6th-8th september) which may hamper proceedings (also around 50% retracement).
Of course it could all turn to mush and go the other way. It would need to break below 1.36525 and various levels exist where it could hold up it’s movement. Likely target downside (again using ATR and fib levels is likley to be 1.36500, being a 50% retrace from the recent high, maybe as lows as 1.34400.
Of the two scenarios, I think the upside is the better option, but keep an open mind.
At least there’s two of us so far that are siding with the bulls. Anyone else? Hmm, I think Craig W. got called up to the big leagues and is now a funded trader.
Well – we’re showing the dedication, checking the forum at weekends.
Or perhaps we need to get a more diversified set of interests outside of trading
lol Prodigal, I guess you and I just luv trading, it’s in our blood sort of speak lol. I’ve joined Apiary late Sept. and they allowed me to get a head start, so Oct. is considered my first month. How about you, how when did you start?
I signed up at the end of August. Had two good weeks trading my “normal” style, did some fool hardy experimentation for the next two weeks (trying to chase the stats as well) – dumb move.
Currently sitting just above 10k having just about come to terms with the 2% limiter.
Hey Prodigal, it’s all good. It’s making the adjustment from your own personal style and adjusting to a new set of condition upon your trading rules/style.
I’m hoping their a bit flexible about this 2% rule with some traders because if you want to trade the 1hr chart, you’ll be bound to have that 2% get in your way before you can get he 1 hour chart to be a runner. And runners are where the $$$ is at. And they know it.
You were right about EUR/USD being in consolidation at the moment, just look at the daily. But most new traders aren’t aware of this when they’re trading the 1 minute chart and how the daily consolidation affects the 1 or 5 minute chart.
But it’s all good, I just got keep WORKING at what ever trading level I’m at. I’m wondering if they’re waiting for us to get 50% return on the 10k or is it 100% roi.
I’m like you I’m just above my 10k, at the beginning I was 25% ROI but after the 2% implementation I practically went flat line. But now I’m doing ok adjusting, hopefully, they’ll allow me to trade the 1 hr chart so I can get a 50% ROI, by the end of Oct., if not, then I’ll be nickel and dimming the 1 minute chart which will only produce more losses and little gains.
I think I read somewhere that there is a possibility of a larger than 2% limit, but it needs to be after careful evaluation by the risk managers before it is agreed to.
My main chart period is 15 mins, with suitable review of 1hr/4hr and daily time frames.
When I started (mid 2007) I used to think that I could trade 5 min charts using a short term momentum method. Despite believing I was taking the longer term trend into account I found it was too easy to become blinkered and only see the short term direction – usually to my cost.
Some of the main things I learned from this is that.
1. The market doesn’t care what you want and just because you want it to move in a direction doesn’t mean it will (no matter how much you buy/sell!)
2. If you trade opposite to the longer term trend, expect to get slapped.
3. Trust what you see and your own judgment rather than a broker/commentator. (i.e. Trade what you see).
Apiary can u please provide option to attach charts (pictures) in our posts?
Hmmm, it seems like EUR/USD will pull back to the 1.3860 area with a possible twist of the knife’s edge to 1.3840. Regardless if it pulls back or not, 1.4000 area is still locked and loaded for target.
We’re only one day in and after yesterdays rather lacklustre movement I think it’s to soon to call. Also, we need to get the next euro meeting out of the way.
there is no point to trade Eu at this moment,nothing is clear,even the experts are confused,no clear signal.
Never said I was trading it – I agree there’s no direction
euro is just bangling on wall and bouncing back from both suppports and resistance.
Of course – the fact they’ve just cancelled tomorrows Euro meeting might cause a bit of movement in the market. ah yes, a 100 pip whipsaw – nice 8^>
Especially as it’s not the meeting they think – apparently the ECOFIN meeting.
Some twitchy trigger fingers out there – be careful.
yes lol 100 pips whipsaw.I am sure many micro account got wiped out.
Well, my analysis of 1.3860 pull back was correct. Unfortunately, I forced the trades, then I got my ego involved, then I tried experimenting timing the 1 minute with the 1 hour – I ended up paying dearly for that.
Oh well enough experiments with my trading gains, back to sane trading, getting back the profits won’t be a problem. Finding the correct balance in trading the 2% and trading the larger time frame will be just a matter of time.
Eur/Usd might have to pull back further before it can take out 1.4000. So in the meantime, I’ll go back nickle and dimming the market until the 1 hour sets up again. I think that will be a better plan in finding the correct balance in trading with Apiary.
I’ve been trading the EURUSD on the 1 min chart and this last week has been especially painful. I get a lot of practice but the moves are making me a bit dizzy. I’m thinking about moving out on the time frame and looking at another tight spread pair.
The most difficult thing I’m finding about learning this way is the only feedback I get is from my P&L. I can look at my stats and figure out what I’m doing wrong but it is much more difficult for me to figure out what to do right. Thankfully I’m persistent, read stubborn – ;o)
good day to screwup whole performance lol thankgod I stayed sideways
By the way, I like how the forum now goes right to the last unread post.
Just to add to Chad’s last point, I’m not sure the “go to last post” works if ther is more than one page of comments. It goes to the end of the first page.
Well itrade2 – one day to go and so far my prediction isn’t looking too bad. Seems to be in the “hiccup” zone around the 1.41 area. I wonder if we’ll see it push to the 61.8% retracement or collapse.
Hey Colton – you pop up eveywhere
I would have thought going to the last post should be to the last post on whatever is the current last page.
Hope you’re all set for the session later.
Prodigal, your analysis is correct. Most traders don’t realize that they need to be an analysis to trade successfully. So Prodigal are you funded yet?
Colton, no worries you can post where ever you want to.
Have a great weekend all!
Thanks itrade2, I was pretty close. It didn’t quite reach the 61.8% fib retracement, but if I’d had the means to put on a trade based on my analysis (time frame waaay to large for me) I would have been happy with the results
Notice also that for most of the week it barely broke below the 38.2% line.
Here’s a chart with the fibs on it and the range I referred to (in yellow).
No, I’m not funded yet. Still working towards those elusive stats (not able to get average win greater than average loss at the moment) and currently flip-flopping either side of $10k.
last Thursday can be written as black thursday ,i personally know few guys who booked heavy losses with real money,they were all short on EU guessing a retrace which never happened.
kind of a short sqeezed day for many bears.
one of the guy lost whole of his yearly salary :O
Only one thing to say to that. where did they put their stop losses?
Prodigal, don’t worry about the stats too much. The bottom line for me is “equity,” the ROI of the 10k for each month. Example, you can have greater losing averages compared to the winning averages and you can be up 50%-70% on your equity.
One stat, for me to concentrate on is what is your equity at the end of the month, because that’s your payday. My understanding is at the new month, you start over again at 10k, then after a while of proven trades you can get to 50k, etc.
But I can be WRONG on this, so maybe an Apiary Staff can clarify this for us wanna-beez funded traders. lol.
2% loss of equity and trading get stop,this can be very useful rule for days like thursday.
True – the increase in equity is a core driver, but the average win/loss ratio will go to assist that.
wow, a hive of activity with the euro today..
First time i was on the right side of the trends and took a lot of scalped pips..
I got my signal to enter at 19.03hrs (London time) – 1.39163 1 lot size. on 1 min TF
(Got into at the Green line)
Still in after 19.30 (London time) closed half position .
I have a moving stop loss (dotted red line) when i physically move the line my SL is adjusted too.
So supprised i walked into a couple of these today . logged nearly $2k
Sorry the chart looks a bit messy but there is form in that there chaos.
k15hor, that’s an AWESOME trade Congrats. I got my A$$ handed to me on that nasty short.
Ha! – DailyFx just reported.
GREEK PARTY OFFICIAL: PAPANDREOU MAY WITHDRAW REFERENDUM PROPOSAL.
No wonder my EURUSD trade just shot 35 pips in under 2 minutes. Shame all it did was give me a small profit (it wasn’t looking pretty until that point).
From a political perspective, it just makes the whole situation look like it’s being run by a bunch of amateurs.
Regardless of whether it’s true or not, the official should possibly have held his tongue as it just adds to the uncertainty.
If it turns out to be false – he’s added a market spike where perhaps there should not have been one.
If it’s true, Papandreou is just made to look like a fool/puppet of Merkel/Sarkozy/IMF.
All in all – you couldn’t write a Broadway/West End farce that was better.
Expect more volatility today (a lot more!). A possible rate cut, ADP unemployment, ISM, and G20. I have a feeling today is going to rocky, moving from one headline to the next. Good luck out there!
I’ve walked away – too easy to get caught on the wrong side of these headlines.
Latest news posts from DailyFX – . UNCONFIRMED REPORTS THAT GREEK PM PAPANDREOU MAY RESIGN
And just to mix it up a bit, Medvedev decides to open his yap with potential IMF support!
Think I’ll take the dog for a walk, have some lunch, and review some of the recordings.
What part of the world are you from Prodigal?
South West of London, UK (Near Hampton Court)
Nice! I am a monster Chelsea fan! Spent some time in London a few years ago. Too bad Arsenal gave them a whipping on Saturday
Where are you then?
Just watching all the smiling G20 faces on BBC News 24 – not sure how long those smiles are going to last
Pennsylvania (near Harrisburg) in the USA
You’re up early
I try and trade from 8:30 GMT up to about the NY open – depends how well I do.
Monday/Friday I’m able to trade from home, Tuesday-Thursday isn’t as convenient as I trade from work and as you may have seen in other posts, sometimes my internet connection is unreliable.
Today however I’m trading from home. and totally messed about by Europe news (in profit though)!
Total chaos out there today! Hard to pinpoint a good entry point but there are tons of opportunities out there that is for sure!
Worked out good today for me. First trade hit the stops, then small profit on second, then a nice run for the best of the week.
I made $683 on my first trade and have dribbled down to 10,385 I plan to be patient and wait for a double bottom W set up. This is where I am confident of an entry.
I’m Back! Got my system up a running LATE this morning but I had a signal and took it. Short eur/usd @ 1.3587 current price 1.3530. I think I’ll let it run. Protective stop at 20 pips.
Since Apiary wont let me play the cycle for the 1 hour chart I’ll have to play the 1 minute chart and time it with the 1 hour. I know they know what I know but they just wont let me do it.
Each time they pull my trades the market turns to my favor for a profit. lol. But it’s all good. It’s my 2nd month and I’ll play by their rules. lol!
Welcome back itrade2!
Darn, place my protective stop too tight before bed time, missed my run. oh well, there’s more opportunities. lol.
What do you think +300 short at the moment close it or hold it. nice break tonight in the Asian session neckline/lows broken @ 1.34837. look out below.
Here’s a EU 240 chart lots of potential here.
fear and panic. let’s make some dough. lol!
I think you are are right, BFM. lots of downside. (going to try to post a chart and see how it works)
Cool! Works well.
What is your chart setup and indicators you have there. Is it working for you? How do you trade it?
Here’s a weekly chart of the EU for longer term outlook. see swing trader thread for other charts.
some levels to watch
anyone lucky enough to catch the break? Last night in the asian session there was a good sell off as well. just something to note:
Wow. Did anyone get blindsided by the coordinated central bank effort to lower interest rates on dollar swaps?
yes I did catch it
Good luck for you Ali. I woke up to the news, literally watched the spike as I turned on my computer. Too little too late. I’ll catch it on the way back down. and I predict eventually, it will go down again, just as quickly.
Just broke through resistance @1.2945! Looking for a possible move higher to the 1.30 level and possibly the next area of support around 1.3077. Thoughts anyone?
the move down for the S&P dismantling the European bonds friday 1.2870 to 1.2623
Throw a fib on it and your looking for 61.8% and it blew through it == and the 78.6% and the 100% and barely got through the 127.2%
Strange thing about these fib levels, if one does hold the next one might.
Now Tomorrows Pivot R1 is around 1.3024
Next, you know that you will see divergence on sometime like MACD Histogram. The most accurate is the Awesome Oscillator.
I will be watching he 1.3024 – 1.3077 for a Porform Pivot Semaphore, negative divergence and trend line break and expect to see price go to the 2880 area when it does reverse.
The 2623- 3025/3077 will be the AB leg. The move back to 2880/2890 the bc and the CD wiil be equal to the AB — if goes as per text book.
And thus, my thoughts.
Thanks for the post Kitsap, well done tonight in the presentation. I think we will see some resistance around 1.30 (as it is a psychological level) and there may be DNT options in play with the heavy move downwards. I am staying cautious about this move up as I feel it is a mostly a reaction to the string of “no bad news” out of Europe and not “good news”.
correction to last. I would expect a 50% retrace of the move up from 1.2623 to the 1.3034/3077 region. That would take price back to the 1.2820.
Nothing moves in a straight line. Because it is a correction , I expect a sideways move before reversing into the C wave up and approaching the Wave 2 high aground 3220.
if this pans out, the calcs suggest as ensuing low around 1.11 in May 2020.
These guys know their stuff. This is something to put into consideration:
The EURUSD hit the Weekly Pivot R2 and is overbought on the H4 time frame. Reversing from that 1.2987 high and finding support at the 2880 region was a clue to use the Fib-EXP tool and look for a reversal in the 50-78.6% retrace. Price came back to 61.8% and is showing overbought on lower time frames.
This now gives a target for the pull back to about the 1.2830-1.2855 region.
Another exciting thing here. — A price reversal to the 1.2851 will bring a 38% retrace of the move up and set up the Gartley Triple Top Buy pattern that H.M. Gartley wrote about in his 1935 tome Profits in the Stock Market. (pages 200 – 250)
The classical pivot for weekly R1 and S1 are tested better than 70% of the time. You can see this demonstrated several times during the current bearish move. The pull-backs have been capped at the Weekly R1 and then continue the plunge.
And that is my “opinion” on what we may see in EURUSD in Monday’s trading session and an area to watch for reversal.
Last week the EURUSD Weekly support 1 was at 1.2840 and price tested 1.2854 The weekly R1 was at 1.3189. These numbers are generated by the previos weeks 1.3233 high, 1.2854 low and 1.3229 close.
Statistically, 70-80 percent of the time the market will trade at the R1 and S1 just as we see the market trading at the daily R1 and S1 about 80% of the time during the trading day.
In the week of 1/30 – 2/3 we have a weekly pivot at 1.3105, a Weekly R1 @ 1.3356 and Weekly support at 1.2977.
The Dollar is testing its 38% Fibonacci Retracement. The Dixie (dollar index) has a strong trend line support at about 1.7850 and my anticipated lows suggest we will be testing this as well.
Now the end of the month often brings “flows” that promotes the typical end of month dollar strength. It will be interesting to see if this is true again.
There is a support on the EURUSD at the 1.3174 level and very close to the daily support pivot on Monday. We also have a tremendous amount of resistance at the 1.3240 – 1.3260
The EURUSD also stands at the area of support turned resistance from late October and late November. Looking at market structure the M5 does not have proper UTAH Fig 15 divergence. This may allow a test of the EMA 144/169 tunnel and complete the push to a higher price with lower MACD. Negative divergence will be in place on all time frames and allow trading the EURUSD lower toward that weekly S1 Pivot.
Head and Shoulder pattern on the EURUSD H4 bar. Target is 1.3050 where we have weekly confluence support. Real target, by using Fib Expansion as demonstrated in webinars is 1.2960.
The weekly support level is at 1.2860. it is not illogical for this to be hit since it is the first bullish move in several months.
You nailed that call! 1.3041 was today’s low. Well done.
The Head and Shoulder pattern was the most awkward of many we have seen. The only thing that gave the sell context hope was the dark cloud cover candle pattern.
The 4 hr context is bearish.
To be really clear, My thought is we are in a Wave 2 and target is 1.35422 (around 1.35). The wave 2 is of 3 waves. My thought is the wave A complete at 1.3237 and we are headed down in wave B composed of 3 waves( a-b-c) with price going to raround 1.2840 — Then up to complete wave C and wave 2 above 1.35. KEY THING — this is opinion.
But for now I am focused on the B wave. The first fib support is the 38.6 @ 1.3004. Just below that we have the Monthly Pivot at 1.2983 and the 161% expansion of the quasi H&S pattern at 1.2959. This is the region I will be looking for the reversal and end of ‘a’ of B and start the b wave of the B and upside target around 1.3140 for said ‘b’ of B.
My wave B target is around 1.2840. This generally comes in around 50- 61% of the A leg (1.2623 to 1.3237).
In terms of time — this next Leg that will start around the 2960 – 3000 will take about 4 weeks. to reach the 2840. That does not mean the market will not move its usual 100 or so pips each day. This is a wave B and this is where a lot of newbie traders get into trouble with whipsaw and such. Patience is my (our) best friend – especially – here.
For now – I am looking for reversal in the 1.3004 – 1.2960 region. It will probably be adamantly signaled by a major Proform pivot on the M30 with CCI-14 cutting up from below the -100. This Proform Pivot will be on all time frames below M30.
The B wave of 2 started at the 1.3237 high. We are looking for 3 waves in The B wave marked a-b-c. The ‘a’ segment completed about the time I wrote the above note (1.3020). I was looking for the CCI(14) to break through -100 going up and a major Proform Pivot in place on all lower time frames below the M30. Coming back up to the 1.3220 highs leaves me to think this will work out as a flat with price eventually working its way back down to around 1.3000 before going to the 1.3500 to finish this wave 2 correction.
That said, I am looking for price to come back down to 1.3160 and then back up to about 1.3230 before reaching 1.3000 and starting an impulsive move toward 1.3500.
Again. when the move down to 1.3160, My focus will be the same thing. A major ProForm Pivot in place around 1.3220 with the CCI-14 breaking through 100 and heading down. The divergence on the CCI will give me confidence that the Pivot is now fixed.
the Awesome Oscillator posted a new peak high with the 1.3217 high and with bar divergence. We know from UTAH Fig 15 that the AO normally goes back to (or below) zero to give us the wave 4. We also know that the wave 4 usually bottoms around the EMA 144 and EMA 169 (aka Tunnel) and that is currently at 1.3131. This may be the area where the next reversal to a new high (and a lower AO).
The Fib-exp on the 1.3217 high down to the 1.3145 (most current low) shows a 50% retrace back to the 1.3180. That will bring the 100% (the usual target) to 1.3110. I am looking for Proform Pivot in that region with the CCI reversing below -100 and an obvious divergence on it. The target will be around 1.3230.
The Hour bar posts an AO peak that still has not returned to zero. The Tunnel sets at 3100.
The M30 bar AO has came to zero meeting minimum status of the UTAH Fig 15 and has pierced the Tunnel as it usually does after a new extreme on the Awesome Oscillater
The Proform Pivot manages to repaint as the related zigzag indicators on which it is based repaints. This repainting stops when divergence of any sort is observed.
As noted before, the structure appears to support a return to the 1.3230 – 1.3270 area before coming to the Wave B of Wave 2 low around 1.2960
A major Proform Pivot 3 has formed on all time frames M30 and Below. I am watching for a divergent CCI-14 to cross the -100 going up for an entry to the long side.
The spike to 1.3190 on China’s verbiage was “all hat and no cattle.” The M5 still has not completed the UTAH fig 15 and the Hour bar AO still has not came to the zero line.
The logic continues — The target for the move up is the Tunnel on the Daily bar and that is also the 50% retrace of the move down from 1.4248 to 1.2624.
I saw a note on FXLIVE to short EURUSD at 1.3250 with target at 1.2250. I do expect a move to 1.3270 or so after a divergence on the M5 and M15, as consequent to only to about 1.2960 before price retraces to the daily bar tunnel. THAT IS OPINION.
If this logic introduced by assuming veracity of UTAH Fib 15. A low below 1.3117 will be seen before breaking the 1.3190 highs.
The handy thing about spikes is they prove resistance. (1.3190)
The M15 and M5 still has lacks proper divergence to comply with the ideas of FIG 15 of UTAH.
The M5 tunnel is at 1.3142 and the Fib-exp off the low target has 1.3139 as target before taking out the 1.3084 low.
When I see proper divergence, I will look for an entry with major Proform Pivot on all time frames (M30 and below) and the CCI-14 to cut through -100 from below on M30. The CCI-14 will most likely show divergence on the M15 and M5.
The spikes have done their job — they have proven to traders where the resistance is. We have about 7 touch points on the upper downward sloping trend line (which may prove to be a bull flag).
From the perspective of the UTAH fig 15, we have lower AO peaks on the m1, m5 and m15 that have not been answered with a lower low on price and a higher Awesome Oscillator (hence proper divergence).
The most recent spike has produced a very high M1 peak on AO but it was not a new peak. What we did get from the last spike was the AO coming to zero on the higher time frames.
The presence of bar divergence ( price making new high but AO not getting a higher bar) usually shows the move has exhausted and I look for price to return to the tunnel (1.3141), eventually to give a lower low (below 1.3083) and a higher AO value.
John, when do you sleep?
Could you attach a chart to the description? I would find that very helpful -thanks.
You are right — thank you.
My charts are horrifically messy with a ton of fibs and I am always complaining like the guy with TV service and 64,000 channels that there is never anything to watch and for me – there is not enough colors (that’s colours to our UK friends) to paint the lines I draw. But I will clean it up and make it work so we can get the most out of this forum.
I am retired Navy. I stood 4 by 4 watches for so many years and the most I sleep at a time is about 4 hours. I’ll hit the rack and wake up about 4 hours later and not be able to get back to sleep.
The second factor is Pu-erH tea. You can get it for about 11 cents a bag where most others run about a quarter. But — if you can also pay 8 bucks an ounce for it from health food stores because it is regarded as a weight loss product.
In the 13th Century a peasant shop keeper would be visited by the Emperor and the Emperor would have tea. But when a drought came, the shop keeper pulled out some tea that had been is storage for what was regarded as “too long.” When he served this to his highness, the Emperor had the shop keeper executed immediately. The royal one found it to be so good he was offended that the now deceased proprietor had been holding out on him.
This Pu-erH tea is good for the digestion, very calming and one should not drink it if you plan on going to sleep for the next couple of days. Its not full of vitamin Pee like coffee and no coffee jitters. And you know, that we want to be very calm when trading.
John, great comments as always. I look forward to reading your posts each day! Thanks for all of your hard work!
And thank you, Matthew. The respect and appreciation is mutual.
With the spikes we’ve had, my OPINION remains the same. We still don’t have the divergence to send he market up and that not until the 1.3083 low is taken out unless something else happens.
I adamantly state OPINION because in this business, only facts matter. We are being told the market is oversold. Is there a dipstick on the ocean saying it is too full? Or that because some oscillator has extended to the upper zone where price has reversed before that price must reverse again. We have been watching the charts long enough to know that opinion can be disastrous.
In Greek methology Janus has two faces, one looking right and one looking left, the metaphore for technical analysis – that by looking behind we can have an idea of what is coming next. That supposes we match the right pattern by which to interpret. In this forum, I choose to use things learned from Elliott wave. And not to get wrapped around the axle with wave counts but alert to high probability price patterns , and we can trade while managing the risk.
If someone was to ask us the silly question, what comes after sideways, after all the time we’ve been watching these charts, we know that if we were to be silly and answer with a question of “what came before, we would have a good chance of being right. The “Sideways” is usually a 4th wave and they come after the AO has made an extreme. It usually hugs the tunnel. Often is shows up as a bear or bull flag. And we know that our FIB-EXP tool works well enough to give us an accurate target about 80% of the time. (Its about 99% good on a zigzag.)
I have a screen shot of the M5 after the spike into the 1.3185 region. You will see I have put a red colored FIB-EXP on it and the 100% is our logical target.
We have dropped a Fib-EXP from the high @ 1.3217 down to the 1.3084 low and put the retrace line back to the 1.3187 high in dark blue. It shows a target for this move down around the 1.3073. When you look at the M30 chart attached, you will see how it fits with our UTAH figure 15 studies.
Then the most recent move down and retrace give a target 1.3101.(100%)
I have attached the M30 chart also. You observe the AO has a new peak low and no proper divergence. Fig 15 suggest that the AO returns to the waterline (aka zero) which it did on spike to 1.3187 and now will go down to push a new low with a higher low on the AO. This will give the “proper divergence” that completes the wave 5 and sends price to the 1.3270 region to complete the b wave of the B wave of wave 2.
Because this is the “B” wave we anticipate a lethargic move. The move up from 1.2623 took 13 days. The B wave usually takes about twice as long and half the range. It does this by thrashing back and forth and choppy. We have been in this move for about a week and it has went .
attached is a pdf with some ideas about trading with help of the CCI. I use it with the Proform Pivots to open positions.
The CCI is an oscillator — and that means it goes divergent. If we remember we are using it as a confimicator we can do well. When we see major Proform Pivots on several time frames this can give us a heads up that price is at or near an extreme. But it the Pivot method does repaint. So, when we see major Proform pivots on all time frames M30 and below and the CCI is divergent on those time frames below the m30, there is a good chance we have reached extreme and can enter the trade with the wind at our backs.
I hope to demonstrate this in more detail as we go forward.
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